Avis de recrutement : Recrutement d’un.e Consultant.e en modélisation et évaluation de l’économie verte en Hongrie.

Avis de recrutement : Recrutement d’un.e Consultant.e en modélisation et évaluation de l’économie verte en Hongrie.

 

 

 

 

 

The main activity for this role consists  of economic modelling using the Green Economy Model (GEM) for Zambia’s Green Growth Strategy and technical selection and refinement of sectoral scenarios. Working closely with sectoral experts in Zambia, the consultant will be recruited to lead modelling efforts using GEM. Overall, the modelling work will entail the following activities/tasks:

1. Stocktaking: Review of existing models’ results and scenarios in order to assess data provision/gaps and assure alignment with GEM.  This activity also aims at incorporating energy and other sectoral model outputs with the GEM. An initial list of data requirements will be drafted and shared with MoGE project focal point national experts/ consultants.

2. Scope of modelling and selection of indicators: Identification of the scope of the model, conceptualization of the model, with the Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) or system maps at the national level including macro-economic variables and indicatorssuch as population, GDP -for aggregate agriculture, industry and services-, as well as land cover and land -use and GHG emissions from energy and land. The CLDs reflect the interrelationships of different variables of a system/sector in a diagrammatic way. This is an important step as the variables of the model should be defined and informed the data collection process.

3. Review and validation: The CLDs will be reviewed and validated by comparing the information received with reports and data.

4. Guidance to data collection: The consultant in close collaboration with the GGGI project team will guide national policy officials on the type of data that are required and need to be collected. The consultant will guide GGGI staff and national experts/ consultants to collect additional data from national-level statistics that are either available in the country or from international databases. Data on technological and policy interventions in different sectors will be collected by GGGI staff and national experts/ consultants for building the alternative scenarios. All collected data will be reviewed by the consultant before integrating them in the model for further analysis.

5. Model creation, parameterization and calibration of the business as usual (BAU) scenario: Creation of the mathematical model, consisting of the translation of the CLDs into mathematical modules, with numerical inputs and equations, depending on data availability. The model will also include the necessary macroeconomic indicators and relevant information listed in task/activity 4.

6. Review and feedback to the creation of the alternative scenarios and analysis of results at the national level and in different sectors. The selection/validation of the different interventions and scenarios will be based on a (virtual) stakeholders’ consultation process/workshops. The alternative scenarios can be simulated incorporating the different technological and policy interventions selected during the stakeholders’ consultation. The consultant will review and provide feedback to the assessment of the costs and benefits of Zambia low carbon development pathways.

7. Participation at the Final virtual Stakeholders Consultation and Validation: for scenarios results’ validation and refinements with stakeholders.

COMPETENCY REQUIREMENTS

The Consultant competencies include:

– Extensive knowledge and proven experience using System Dynamics Modelling approach to support policy planning at national level in the context of low-carbon development.

– Previous experience integrating the energy models and other sectoral models and data to System Dynamics Modelling approach is essential.

– Extensive experience in formulating policy in consultative processes, working with government officials, sectoral and policy experts and key other stakeholders.

– Strong expertise in macro-economy and economy-wide policies in the context of low-carbon development.

– Experience in results interpretation for long-term development and policy design.

– Excellent knowledge of policy and technology options for low-carbon transformation.

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